RICHMAP

RICHMAP 상황실 · 연준 전용

연준 방

미국 기준금리는 누가, 언제, 몇 대 몇으로 정했나. 이 방의 문장은 전부 FOMC 성명서 원문이고 숫자는 연준·FRED·한국은행 원값입니다. 전망은 쓰지 않습니다 — 위원들이 직접 찍은 점도표만 옮깁니다.

오늘 발표 2026년 9월 15일 FOMC · 점도표 회의 — 14:00 ET = 한국 내일 03:00
미국 목표범위 3.50%~3.75% 2026년 7월 29일 FOMC · 동결 · 9–3
실효금리3.63%FRED DFF · 9.14
한국 기준금리3.00%한국은행 · 2026년 8월 27일 결정
한미 금리차0.50~0.75%p미국이 높음
美 국채 10년 · 2년4.97%4.65%장단기차 +0.32%p · 9.14
원/달러1,340.3FRED DEXKOUS · 9.11

금리 계단

연준 목표범위(띠) · 한국은행 기준금리(선) · 점도표 중앙값(점) — 2021년 12월부터
0%1%2%3%4%5%6% 2022202320242025202620272028 오늘 20263.820273.620283.4장기3.1 美 3.75 韓 3.00
연준 목표범위(성명서에서 읽은 상·하한) 한국은행 기준금리 점도표 중앙값 (2026년 6월 17일 전망) · 아래 눈금은 FOMC 결정일(인상·인하·동결)

결정 연대기

성명 46건 · 인상 11 · 인하 6 · 동결 28 · 반대표 있던 회의 10

2026

  1. 동결 3.50% ~ 3.75%
    9–3 Beth M. Hammack · Neel Kashkari · Lorie K. Logan ↑ 인상을 선호
    원문
    The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.
    Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  2. 동결 3.50% ~ 3.75%
    12–0
    원문
    The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.
    by a 12 – 0 vote
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  3. 동결 3.50% ~ 3.75%
    8–1 Stephen I. Miran ↓ 인하를 선호
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.
    Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting; and Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  4. 동결 3.50% ~ 3.75%
    11–1 Stephen I. Miran ↓ 인하를 선호
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.
    Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  5. 동결 3.50% ~ 3.75%
    10–0
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.
    Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →

2025

  1. 인하−0.25%p 3.50% ~ 3.75%
    9–1 Stephen I. Miran ↓ 인하를 선호
    원문
    decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.
    Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting; and Austan D. Goolsbee and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  2. 인하−0.25%p 3.75% ~ 4.00%
    10–1 Stephen I. Miran ↓ 인하를 선호
    원문
    decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent.
    Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting, and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  3. 인하−0.25%p 4.00% ~ 4.25%
    11–1 Stephen I. Miran ↓ 인하를 선호
    원문
    decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4-1/4 percent.
    Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  4. 금리 결정 없음 · Statement on Longer-Run Goals 개정
    —
    원문 federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  5. 동결 4.25% ~ 4.50%
    9–0
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.
    Voting against this action were Michelle W. Bowman and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting. Absent and not voting was Adriana D. Kugler.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  6. 동결 4.25% ~ 4.50%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; Jeffrey R. Schmid; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  7. 동결 4.25% ~ 4.50%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Neel Kashkari voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  8. 동결 4.25% ~ 4.50%
    11–1 Christopher J. Waller — 동결을 선호
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.
    Voting against this action was Christopher J. Waller, who supported no change for the federal funds target range but preferred to continue the current pace of decline in securities holdings.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  9. 동결 4.25% ~ 4.50%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; Jeffrey R. Schmid; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →

2024

  1. 인하−0.25%p 4.25% ~ 4.50%
    11–0
    원문
    decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.
    Voting against the action was Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  2. 인하−0.25%p 4.50% ~ 4.75%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  3. 인하−0.50%p 4.75% ~ 5.00%
    11–1 Michelle W. Bowman ↓ 인하를 선호
    원문
    decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent.
    Voting against this action was Michelle W. Bowman, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  4. 동결 5.25% ~ 5.50%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller. Austan D. Goolsbee voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  5. 동결 5.25% ~ 5.50%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  6. 동결 5.25% ~ 5.50%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  7. 동결 5.25% ~ 5.50%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  8. 동결 5.25% ~ 5.50%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →

2023

  1. 동결 5.25% ~ 5.50%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  2. 동결 5.25% ~ 5.50%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  3. 동결 5.25% ~ 5.50%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  4. 인상 5.25% ~ 5.50%
    11–0
    원문
    decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  5. 동결 5.00% ~ 5.25%
    11–0
    원문
    decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 to 5-1/4 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  6. 인상 5.00% ~ 5.25%
    11–0
    원문
    decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5 to 5-1/4 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  7. 인상 4.75% ~ 5.00%
    11–0
    원문
    decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  8. 인상 4.50% ~ 4.75%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →

2022

  1. 인상 4.25% ~ 4.50%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  2. 인상 3.75% ~ 4.00%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-3/4 to 4 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  3. 인상 3.00% ~ 3.25%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  4. 인상 2.25% ~ 2.50%
    12–0
    원문
    decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  5. 인상 1.50% ~ 1.75%
    10–1 Esther L. George ↑ 인상을 선호
    원문
    decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.
    Voting against this action was Esther L. George, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point to 1-1/4 percent to 1-1/2 percent. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  6. 인상 0.75% ~ 1.00%
    9–0
    원문
    decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  7. 인상 0.25% ~ 0.50%
    8–1 James Bullard ↑ 인상을 선호
    원문
    decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.
    Voting against this action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  8. 동결 0.00% ~ 0.25%
    9–0
    원문
    decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →

2021

  1. 동결 0.00% ~ 0.25%
    11–0
    원문
    decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  2. 동결 0.00% ~ 0.25%
    11–0
    원문
    The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  3. 동결 0.00% ~ 0.25%
    11–0
    원문
    The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  4. 동결 0.00% ~ 0.25%
    11–0
    원문
    The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  5. 동결 0.00% ~ 0.25%
    11–0
    원문
    The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  6. 동결 0.00% ~ 0.25%
    11–0
    원문
    The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  7. 동결 0.00% ~ 0.25%
    11–0
    원문
    The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →
  8. 동결 0.00% ~ 0.25%
    11–0
    원문
    The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.
    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.
    federalreserve.gov · 성명 전문 →

점도표 — 위원들이 찍은 숫자

2026년 6월 17일 전망(SEP) 중앙값 · 괄호는 직전 3월 전망 대비
2026년2027년2028년장기
연방기금금리(중앙값) 3.8▲0.43.6▲0.53.4▲0.33.1=
PCE 물가 3.6▲0.92.3▲0.12.0=2.0=
근원 PCE 3.3▲0.62.5▲0.32.1▲0.13.2▲0.7
실업률 4.3▼0.14.3=4.2=4.2=
실질 GDP 2.2▼0.22.3=2.2▲0.12.0=

표의 숫자는 연준이 발표한 표(Table 1)의 중앙값을 그대로 옮긴 것이고, 연방기금금리 행은 "적절한 정책 경로"에 대한 위원 개별 전망의 중앙값입니다. 원표 →

반대표 장부

2021년 이후 성명서에 이름이 적힌 반대자 — 몇 번, 어느 쪽으로
Stephen I. Miran 5회 ↓ 인하를 선호 9.17 · 10.29 · 12.10 · 3.18 · 4.29
Beth M. Hammack 1회 ↑ 인상을 선호 7.29
Neel Kashkari 1회 ↑ 인상을 선호 7.29
Lorie K. Logan 1회 ↑ 인상을 선호 7.29
Christopher J. Waller 1회 — 동결을 선호 3.19
Michelle W. Bowman 1회 ↓ 인하를 선호 9.18
Esther L. George 1회 ↑ 인상을 선호 6.15
James Bullard 1회 ↑ 인상을 선호 3.16

한국은행은 이렇게 움직였다

기준금리 결정일 · 한국은행 "기준금리 추이" 표 그대로
  1. 3.00%+0.25%p
  2. 2.75%+0.25%p
  3. 2.50%−0.25%p
  4. 2.75%−0.25%p
  5. 3.00%−0.25%p
  6. 3.25%−0.25%p
  7. 3.50%+0.25%p
  8. 3.25%+0.25%p
  9. 3.00%+0.50%p
  10. 2.50%+0.25%p
  11. 2.25%+0.50%p
  12. 1.75%+0.25%p
  13. 1.50%+0.25%p
  14. 1.25%

한국은행 기준금리 추이 →

누가 어떻게 봤나

반응 보드 fed-watch · 원문 인용은 그대로, 승인된 것만 · 보드 전체 →

정부·중앙은행3

연방공개시장위원회(FOMC)미국 중앙은행

목표범위를 3.50~3.75%로 유지하되 물가가 목표를 웃돈다는 점을 명시

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. 공식 성명 전문에서 원문 그대로 인용. Federal Reserve · 원문 →
해맥·카시카리·로건 위원미국 중앙은행(반대)

이번 회의에서 0.25%p 인상을 선호해 동결에 반대표

Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting. 성명 원문의 반대표 기재 문단. Federal Reserve · 원문 →
한국은행 금융통화위원회한국 중앙은행

물가 상승 압력과 금융안정 리스크를 들어 기준금리를 2.75%로 인상

성장세가 수출과 투자를 중심으로 강화되고 있는 가운데 물가상승률은 상당기간 목표수준을 상회할 것으로 보이고 금융안정 측면의 리스크도 지속되고 있는 만큼 기준금리를 0.25%p 인상하는 것이 적절하다고 판단하였다. 통화정책방향 보도자료 원문 인용. 한국은행 · 원문 →

이 방을 읽는 데 필요한 여섯 단어

각 항목 끝에 연준·FRED·한국은행 원문 링크
FOMC
연방공개시장위원회. 연준 이사 7명과 지역 연은 총재 5명(뉴욕 상시 + 순번 4명)이 투표한다. 연 8회 회의 뒤 성명을 낸다. 연준 · About the FOMC →
목표범위
연준은 금리 하나가 아니라 0.25%p 폭의 구간을 정한다. 이 방의 "3.50~3.75%"가 그것이다. 실제 거래 금리(실효금리)는 그 안에서 움직인다. 연준 · Open Market Operations →
실효 연방기금금리
은행끼리 하루짜리 자금을 빌릴 때 실제로 체결된 금리의 거래량 가중 중앙값. FRED 시리즈 DFF. FRED · DFF →
점도표(SEP)
분기마다 위원 각자가 "적절하다고 보는" 연말 금리를 점으로 찍은 표. 위 표의 숫자는 그 중앙값이다. 약속이 아니라 개별 전망의 모음이다. 연준 · Summary of Economic Projections →
반대표
성명서 끝에 "Voting against this action were …"로 이름과 선호를 적는다. 어느 쪽으로 반대했는지(더 올리자/더 내리자)가 다음 방향의 단서가 된다. 최신 성명 원문 →
한미 금리차
미국 목표범위와 한국은행 기준금리의 차이. 미국이 높으면 달러 자금이 미국으로 쏠릴 유인이 커진다 — 방향은 유인일 뿐 환율을 단독으로 정하지 않는다. 한국은행 · 기준금리 추이 →